The RCEF Blog 博客

In the next twenty years China will:

• Add 350 million people to its urban centers
• Build an estimated 50,000 skyscrapers and other massive public works projects
• Hit peak coal production

Pretty amazing huh?

A collection of some of the brightest minds and leaders in urban development, green technologies and business came together at the recent JUCCCE China Energy Forum to discuss how to use green technology to address the challenges that the country will face in the next twenty years as a result of an explosion in urban growth and limited traditional energy resources like fossil fuels. It was akin to hearing a forecast about the very future of China. From the use of several awe inspiring statistics, it was clear that cities would be the focus of the economic and developmental policy that will guide the country’s future. Clearly, urbanization seems to be an unavoidable path for China and countries throughout the world. But with all this talk about cities, are rural areas getting left out?

According to “Preparing for China’s Urban Billion,” a report published by the McKinsey Global Institute, rural residents will continue migrating to cities at an increasingly higher rate:

“We expect that rapid urban development coupled with surplus populations in the countryside will together act to boost the mobile population to about an additional 240 million people in the next 20 years.” (McKinsey Global Institute, 17)

With this news there are two questions to ask: What will happen to the migrant population when they enter these mega-cities, and what will happen to the small towns and villages that they leave behind? I feel that the majority of policy makers and NGOs will look to address the former question, but only the Rural China Education Foundation and a handful of other organizations will want to tackle the latter one. Yet, both questions are equally important.

Because RCEF’s goal is to promote rural education and rural development, it must work hard to fight the popular notion that urbanization is the only way forward in China, lest we find more and more talented students and resources leaving the smaller cities (McKinsey Global Institute, 30). This continued brain drain will severely limit the rural population’s future. One must question such policy when rural areas are still relied upon to raise food to feed China’s massive population. Who will have the knowledge or interest to farm if the goal of most rural people is to head to the city?

David Turnbull, an experienced architect who has created unique projects all over the world, from Sudan to New Orleans, echoed concerns about the neglect of rural issues at the conference in a conversation with me and Diane. With all the talk about urbanization Mr. Turnbull felt that a comparable panel on “ruralization” was needed. He saw a vital link between urban and rural areas that is essential for the survival of both stating, “A city can’t survive without a clearly organized productive rural landscape.”

If migration from smaller villages continues unabatedly, the abandoned “ghost villages” could have an incredibly damaging effect on the national economy. He gave an example of this happening in England during the Industrial Revolution. When the farmers left their homes to work in the cities, what was once productive agricultural land gradually lost its usefulness and become little more than a vision of picturesque countryside. This is okay in a small country like the UK, but in a large agricultural country like China that must feed more than a billion citizens, such effects could be disastrous.

Mr. Turnbull praised the work that RCEF was doing to help revive rural communities in China, saying that, “Success of your school [Guan Ai] is more important to me than the development of a casino in Macau.” He felt strongly that credible models of rural education and villages would help motivate the next generation of rural Chinese to develop their hometowns. He also shared a few of his own ideas for the design of Guan Ai’s facilities and curriculum with us, one of which was to consider creating a large multi-use space that the students could use for a variety of activities.